By Brig Azad Sameer (Retd)

Date: March 25, 2026

The drums of war are beating louder than ever in West Asia, but a closer look at the tactical map suggests we might be watching a high-stakes theatrical performance rather than the opening salvo of a world-altering invasion.

As of today, the indicators for a U.S.-led terrestrial operation—part of the much-discussed Operation Epic Fury – remain Critical High. Major General Brandon Tegtmeier and the 82^nd Airborne’s Immediate Response Force are on the ground in Kuwait. Global oil markets have already reacted, with prices sliding below $100 per barrel following President Trump’s 5-day ceasefire offer and a 15-point peace plan sent via Pakistan. However, if you look past the headlines, the military reality tells a different story.

The Fist Without an Arm

The 82nd Airborne is a formidable fist, capable of rapid vertical envelopment. But in modern warfare, a fist needs an arm to provide reach and sustained power. In this case, that arm is missing.

Despite the hype surrounding the potential seizure of Kharg Island, the U.S. currently lacks the San Antonio-class mother ships inside the Persian Gulf. Without these LPDs (like the USS San Diego or USS New Orleans, which remain outside the Strait of Hormuz), an amphibious assault to link up with paratroopers and provide the sea to shore logistic support, does not seem probable as of now. You cannot hold territory you cannot resupply from the sea. Logistic sustenance of a force launched via vertical envelopment is possible temporarily, even up to week or so through an Air bridge operation. But by itself it is inadequate and fails the requirement for a longer-term outlook. Normally you do not launch forces by vertical envelopment when land link up or shore to land link up does not seem probable in the short term

The Kharg Island Ruse

While the media is in a frenzy over Kharg Island – the terminal for 90% of Iran’s oil exports – strategic analysis suggests this is likely an operational ruse. By fixing Iranian defensive attention on their oil infrastructure, the U.S. is forcing Tehran to overextend its posture, while the real battle is being fought in the halls of diplomacy and on the floors of stock exchanges.

A Diplomatic Smokescreen

The 15-point plan, demanding the total dismantling of Iran’s nuclear facilities and an end to regional proxy funding, isn’t a traditional negotiation. It is a Shaping Operation.

• The Goal: Create a Negotiate or be Invaded ultimatum.
• The Reality: Tehran has already dismissed the offer as fake news, and the recent Iranian drone strike on Kuwait International Airport shows they are calling the bluff by attempting to crater the runway for U.S. C-17s.

Conclusion: The Grand Illusion

The alignment of the 82nd Airborne, the 5-day tactical pause, and the aggressive peace proposal are pieces of a massive diplomatic bluff.

The U.S. is projecting the image of an imminent invasion to force a collapse in Iranian resolve and stabilize global energy markets. But without the heavy lift of amphibious support inside the Gulf, Operation Epic Fury remains a paper tiger. We aren’t seeing the start of a ground war; we are seeing the ultimate exercise in Armed Diplomacy.

Veteran Brigadier Azad Sameer

Following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, the Global economy is indeed reeling and pretty badly at that. In the meantime a heated debate has possibly ignited within the Pentagon and among Allied planners: Is a terrestrial intervention on Iran’s northern coast to secure the dominating costal high grounds, the only way to permanently break the blockade on the world’s most vital oil artery?

For a long time, strategic thinkers have described the Strait of Hormuz as the world’s jugular vein. For the effective blockade, the Iranians are known to be using comparatively cheap tactics, utilising anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), smart mines, and swarming drone technology. The U.S. military doctrines boasts of Command of the Seas and Command of the Air strategies and capabilities. While the USA does seem to enjoy command of the air, the ‘command of the seas doctrine’ has been tested severely as never before. Carrier-based airstrikes can degrade Iranian capabilities, and possibly even remove the blockade temporarily. Even this will take some doing. However, there is near unanimity among military analysts that as long as Iranian forces control the rugged, mountainous terrain of the Hormozgan Province, the blockade can be made effective once again, within hours.

The Case for Terrestrial Operations

The rationality for land-based buffer zone is rooted in what is called as the Whack-a-Mole problem. Iran’s mobile missile launchers, such as the Noor and Ghadir systems, are skillfully camouflaged within the limestone cliffs and complex of coastal caves overlooking the shipping lanes. They can emerge from a hidden cave or hardened bunker, fire a missile and relocate within minutes. By the time the launch is located and counter measures considered, the mole is back in its hole. The problem is complicated by the fact that sinking of even a single vessel in the narrow passage may cause a permanent blockade.

To anyone familiar with basic military tactics, it is abundantly clear that to effectively clear the strait, one must seize and secure the following:

• The Island Chain to include the islands of Queshm, Larak, Abu Musa, Tunbs and maybe Hormuz.
• Tactical high grounds on the northern coast line. A terrestrial operation to occupy the high grounds extending from Bandar e Lengeh and running east for about 250 km will be needed to clear the threat and physically displace the weapons that currently hold global energy markets to ransom.  The depth of this zone is about 70 to 200 km Northward from the coast line and include all the lower ridge lines that dominate the water way and at least some points on the main Zagros mountain ridge lines. 

This is not an easy task, the hostile terrain extending over a vast area of approximately 2500-3000 sq km.  The contours of such an operation if undertaken will primarily hinge around vertical envelopment employing very large sized heli-borne and air-borne forces in conjunction with special operations, to seize the tactically important high grounds overlooking the coast line as well as the island chain. This necessarily may have to be followed up with frontal assaults to link up with forces landed in depth. In addition may an extensive Air Bridge operation may have to be established for logistic sustenance of a large force, at least for initial phase of the operation until the land link up completed.

Minimum Estimated Force Levels

• Amphibious Assault Force consisting of 2 to 3 Marine expeditionary Units (5000 to 7000 marines).
• Special Operations Command. 2-3 seal teams and Army rangers for silent insertion.
• Air Superiority and Suppression. 2/3 Carrier Strike Groups together with land based  A-10s and AC 130s operating from bases in UAE and Oman for close air support
• Seizing and Holding the coastal buffer. 1 Army Airborne Division and 2 infantry Divisions.

Time Frame

Initial operations to clear the blockade may take about 2 to 3 weeks. To fully sanitise the coast line, many months of counter insurgency operations will be required, difficult to estimate or define.

Financial Implication

All the above add up to a full scale invasion which according expert estimates may involve a financial implication of roughly 5 billion dollars per month if successfully executed.

The Challenge of Fortress Iran

However, the feasibility of such a campaign is fraught with extreme danger. The northern coast of the Strait is a defender’s dream. In essence, for the attacker to win in this kind of terrain, the defender must flee. Any attacking force must face the tyranny of the terrain which is characterised by jagged mountains that rise abruptly from the sea, leaving little room for the kind of large-scale amphibious landings seen in the 20th century.  Key assets of the US Mechanised Forces are of little use in this kind of terrain. More hostile than the terrain will be the weather. Not all troops are accustomed to operating in temperatures over 40 degrees combined with extreme coastal humidity. While the US military may well have adequate forces trained for such vertical envelopment and amphibious operations, it’s a moot question whether they are trained to operate in harsh mountainous terrain and very hostile weather conditions.

U.S. forces will face the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Mosaic Doctrine – a decentralised, asymmetric defense designed to bog down high-tech invaders in a war of attrition. Any landing force will be met with pre-positioned, motivated insurgent cells, man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), and a civilian population likely to view the intervention as a violation of national sovereignty, potentially sparking a decades-long insurgency. More than three weeks of the operation comprising ruthless air and missile attacks by the combined forces of USA and Israel have resulted in almost 70% of the Iranian surface missile force being destroyed. But even the Pentagon has admitted that the even the island chain is far from neutralised, despite an almost complete air superiority of the attacking force.

The Logistics of an Impossible Shoreline

Logistically, sustaining even brigade-sized force on the Iranian coast will indeed be a herculean task. Capturing and holding a coastline of 250 km may well require beyond a Corps size force. The humongous nature of the logistics involved is indeed a never ending nightmare.

Furthermore, a terrestrial invasion might almost certainly escalate the conflict beyond a localised maritime dispute. It will likely trigger a total mobilisation of the Iranian state and could draw in regional proxies, and perhaps other global players turning a mission to open the taps into a full-scale theater or global war.

The Verdict

 A limited raid-and-destroy mission by Special Operations Forces to hit specific batteries is highly feasible, especially involving an aerial insertion and exfiltration. But a sustained terrestrial occupation to control the choke point remains an operation in the realm of very low probability, an operation of last resort. A large scale terrestrial operation of sort is far too expensive, far too dangerous involving unacceptable casualties in the long run and the probability of successful execution not very high.    For now, Washington appears to be tethered to a strategy of maritime escort and aerial suppression. But as oil prices climb and the blockade holds, the pressure to take the coast and islands may soon enter the realm of active consideration.

Veteran Brigadier Azad Sameer

Bloated vanity transforms into a hurricane
And plays a second innings.
Remember the shadows that scorched the stones of 1945?
The ego is a heavy, inflated thing—a lung filled with warm air,
Or toxic ash perhaps, swelling until the earth begins to crack.

Now the hurricane, a screaming, mindless force,
Lashing out at the silence of the Great Stone Wall.
The ancient wall begs not for mercy;
It holds the line with a quiet, terrifying dignity;
The storm demands the world acknowledge its righteous rage.

Hidden in the bunker of frustration, the bully broods;
The map of relevance shrinking by the day.
Maddened by fury, the finger moves
His finger—a pale, trembling worm—begins its move.
It moves across the console, as in a slow funeral march.

We can see the finger move
We can see the finger move
We can see the finger move
Slow and steady, sure and certain
We feel its vibrations in our very teeth,
A low-frequency hum of a world preparing to sublimate.

There is no impulsive strike,
Only the unbearable crawl,
Across the metal, toward the red, unblinking eye of the button.
We read the chronicle of extinction written in the red dust,
We read the final pages of history in real-time, breathless and numb.
Yet we are the silent spectators; in silence is our strength.
We turn to the floodlights of the field so green,
Oh, that glorious drive through extra cover,
That arc of a curving free kick into the net!
Our eyes are fixed on the scoreboard, tallying trivial triumphs,
While the finger crawls, the finger crawls.

We wait for a David and his sling of truth,
Or a Prophet to part the sea of our collective inaction.
But the stadium is a temple of indifference.
The air grows thin; the shadow of that creeping finger reaches the button.
We are not victims of a sudden lightning strike,
We are the architects of a preordained fall painfully slow.
Oh, shall we not shatter the glass and seize the hand,
Or shall we simply wait for the telecast cut to a silent black?

This is how the Kaliyug ends.
This is how the Kaliyug ends.
This is how the Kaliyug ends.
Not in a frenzy but in slow motion.

The Author’s Notes

The Hurricane of Hegemony (The USA)

The bloated vanity and hurricane: Represent the expansive, often chaotic nature of a global superpower.

The Second Innings: This suggests a resurgence of interventionism or a sequel to past conflicts (like the World Wars or the Cold War).

Shadows of 1945: This is a chilling reminder that the US is the only nation to have used nuclear weapons. The toxic ash refers to the literal and political fallout of that hegemony, now swelling to a breaking point as it faces a world it can no longer fully control.

The Ancient Stone Wall (Iran)

In this reading, Iran represents the Great Stone Wall—a stand-in for a 5,000-year-old Persian civilization that views the US as a screaming, mindless force of modern history.

Quiet, Terrifying Dignity: This describes the posture of a nation that refuses to bow to sanctions or military threats. The wall holds the line, representing a defensive, immovable ideology that infuriates the hurricane because it cannot be blown away or easily broken.

The Bully in the Bunker

The bully brooding as his map of relevance shrinks represents a fading superpower’s frustration.

The Pale, Trembling Worm: This metaphor suggests that despite the massive military industrial complex (the hurricane), the actual decision-making power rests in the hands of a fragile, fallible human being in a command center.

The Slow Funeral March: The movement of the finger toward the console symbolises the slow-motion escalation toward a regional or global conflict. It isn’t a sudden mistake; it is a calculated, agonisingly slow crawl toward a red, unblinking eye

Global Indifference (The Spectators)

While the US and Iran engage in this high-stakes standoff, the rest of the world is portrayed as a Temple of Indifference.

The Scoreboard: While the finger crawls toward the button in the Middle East, the global public is distracted by extra covers and free kicks – a critique of how we consume news and entertainment simultaneously. We watch the chronicle of extinction as if it were just another sports highlights reel.

Trivial Triumphs: This suggests that international diplomacy has become a game of scoring points rather than saving lives.

The Failed Saviors

The wait for a David with a sling of truth or a Prophet represents the world’s reliance on some unknown miracle. However, the poem suggests these figures are absent. Instead of a heroic David stopping the Goliath (the US hurricane), there is only the silent black of a cut transmission.

The Slow-Motion Kaliyug

In this geopolitical context, the End of the Kaliyug is the collapse of the modern world order.

It doesn’t end with a sudden lightning strike, but through the preordained fall – refusing to blink until the telecast finally goes dark. The tragedy is that we see it coming in slow motion and do nothing to seize the hand.

By Veteran Brigadier Azad Sameer

Between the target
And the impact
Between the coordinates
And the crushed little skulls
Falls the Shadow
​                       Oh! Life is yet to bloom and still so short

Between the mission
And the massacre
Between smart bombs
And the severed limbs
Falls the Shadow
                       For Thine is the Empire

Between the precision
And the primary school
Between the seven year olds
And the concrete rubble
Falls the Shadow
                       For Thine is the Sovereignty

One hundred eighty souls,
Gathered on this brink of the swollen Jajrud,
In this valley of dying stars.
They are not targeted,
Just collateral liberation.

The world’s most incisive eyes
Are hollow, stuffed with straw,
Leaning together,
Looking but not seeing,
Or just not wanting to see
The ribbons in the red dust
And the satchels with the little books.

Ninety more must carry the weight,
In this hollow land,
This cactus land.
They carry the weight of the missing limb,
The shattered eyes
And the silence that screams.

No apology is whispered,
No head is bowed in the wind.
Between the liberation
And the butchery
Between the error
And the rage
Falls the Shadow
                       For Thine is the kingdom of Tyranny

This is the way the childhood ends
This is the way the childhood ends
This is the way the childhood ends
Not with a prayer but a blast.​

(With profound apologies to T.S. Eliot—adapted from The Hollow Men and with a silent prayer for the hundreds of little girls who lost their lives or limbs when the bombs came down on them on 28 February 2026)