“यात्री अपने सामान केलिये ख़ुद जिम्मेवार है” (Passengers are themselves responsible for their belongings) is the line written on most state transport buses in India, but this was the first sentence spoken to me when I joined the Military Intelligence Directorate at Army Headquarters by our team leader Major Jawahar Lal Malik.  I never fathomed the depth of the advice at that moment, but was always thankful to Major Malik as I carried it with me for the rest of life – during the days when I commanded the regiment and especially after landing in Canada.

In the Army Headquarters, there is only just adequate resources for doing your official job.  Your  clerk will also have to come in and leave with you; else he will miss his bus back home.  All personal and private tasks have to be done by everyone themselves – making various pay & allowances claims, leave certificates, various applications, etc.  Official noting and letters need to be written by the officer at most times.  Neither there will be anyone to receive you in front of the office, nor to see you off in the evening.  If you intend to sit late, you got to switch off all lights, lock the door and deposit the key with the security and then leave.  All these are thrown out of the window the moment the officer steps out of the Army Headquarters and everything is back to normal when they take up command of the units or formations.  The only reason I could attribute to this behaviour is that most are unsure of their status as commanders and need self assurance at all times – in terms of someone receiving in front of the office, someone to carry the brief case, etc.

Each and every officer posted at the Army Headquarters carried a brief case and since I never had one, the first addition to my personal inventory was the brief case.  The only thing I had in it was the lunch box, another never used before addition.  I had never carried a brief case as I never believed in carrying home to office or vice versa, and I never knew what to carry in it.  During one of the courses I really made an effort to carry a brief case (to give the look of a serious student) and I stuffed it with pens of different shades, shapes and purpose and a notebook.  I never found any use for the contents of the brief case and discarded it forever.

Carrying a pad with me as expected by the seniors, to note down anything and everything that was being said, was one I hated most.  I went through all my Army courses like the Technical Staff Course, Long Gunnery Staff Course, etc all without a pad or a notebook.   As a Brigade Major, the Brigade Commander was always peeved at me not carrying a pad to the morning ritual of staff conference.  Once he ticked me off and asked me where my pad was.  I had to politely say that only cricket players used pads.

On assuming command, I had banned the use of pads in Sainik Sammelans ( I had banned conferences too) – mainly due to the fear that everyone sitting before me would be making my caricatures on their pads – the same way I used to do.  I always believed that what is said must be perceived, understood and acted upon by the soldiers and not to be confined to the pages of a pad.  As a young officer, I realised that long Sainik Sammelans (I have gone through the torture for three hours) resulted in cramped legs and sore bottoms for the soldiers and a few caricatures for the officer.   Could be that some Commanding Officers liked listening to their voices or they thought they could pass down all the wisdom to their men in one go.

Major Malik’s advice came really handy on reaching Canada.  Here everyone does everything themselves –gardening, cleaning the cars, all household chores, plumbing/ masonry/ carpentry, maintenance tasks of the house and the list goes on.  In case you want help, you got to pay through your nose.  The material cost of any household project will only be a third of what a contractor would charge you, rest is all labour.

The greatest advantage one enjoys to practice self help here is the benefits of standardisation in everything you put your hands on.  The doors and windows all come in standard sizes and even the hinges are placed to the standard.  In case you need to change a door, you buy a new one of the correct size and the hinges would be so placed that they will always match with the one already drilled on the frame.  The only standardisation I found in India was for the light bulb and holder – even the electric sockets are never to a standard as you realise that you really need to push it in with all your might or modify the distance between its legs to pass into the socket, when you buy any new appliance.

The do-it-yourself videos on YouTube on repairing a leaking flush tank or a tap, building a deck, paving the drive way etc – are a real boon.  Most of them are well made and demonstrates all steps involved in an easy to understand format.  It also gives out the materials required, tools needed and the time required to execute the project.

We buy most of our home hardware from the Home Depot – a North American retail chain.  The staff there are really helpful, especially the experienced ones.   They will happily explain you everything and help you select the required material from the store’s aisles.  There is no fear of ‘over purchase’ as they have a very convenient return policy – anything unused – other than paint and cut lumber – would be taken back without winking an eyelid and full reimbursement is done without a penny being deducted.

The store also has a tool rental section, where in you can rent any tool at nominal rates.  You got to ensure that is clean when you return it (else they will charge you cleaning charges). They rent you a cargo van also in case you got to transport material that cannot fit into your van/car.

My wife suggested that we build a deck at the back of the house to facilitate sitting outside during the summer evenings for barbeque.  There were two options – call in a contractor or remembering Major Malik – do it yourself.  We took the second option – to reduce the cost to a third and also have fun as we took up the project as a family activity.  Children made the plans, duly approved by their mother, the materials  and tools needed list was prepared.  We marked the layout on the ground and dug the holes on the ground for the poles to set in.  Hired a cargo van from the store and purchased the necessary materials and brought them home.  In the next two days was laborious effort by the entire family and we completed the deck, less painting.  That was the time I realised why we were taught carpentry, tin-smithy, turning, milling etc at the National Defence Academy (NDA).

Thank you Major Malik and thank you NDA.

Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, on the Women’s Day –  08 March 2016 – announced that the image of an iconic Canadian woman will appear on the next issue of banknotes, on the very first of the next series of bills expected in 2018.

The Bank of Canada is taking the first step by launching public consultations to select an iconic Canadian woman to be featured on this new bill.  The government and the Bank of Canada did not indicate which denomination would showcase the iconic female Canadian.

Over the next several weeks, up to 15 April 2016, the public can nominate possible female candidates to be the newest face of a banknote, but there are a few stipulations: The individual must be a Canadian citizen who has demonstrated outstanding leadership, achievement in any field, benefiting the people of Canada, or in the service of Canada; the individual cannot be fictional; and the individual must have been deceased for at least 25 years, that is, prior to April 15, 1991.  An Advisory Council comprised of Canadian academic, cultural, and thought leaders will review the submissions and create a short list of qualified candidates for the Bank of Canada to choose from.

Banknotes are cultural touchstones, and are being used to celebrate and reflect the diversity of the Canadian society. With this proposed note, Canadians can honour the achievements of Canadian women and inspire future generations to learn more about the significant contributions women have made to Canada.

In 2011, the Bank of Canada began releasing a new series of polymer bills. In these banknotes, portraits of five former Prime Ministers are featured in the following denominations: $100 (Robert Borden), $50 (William Lyon Mackenzie King), $10 (John A. Macdonald), and $5 (Wilfred Laurier). Queen Elizabeth II appears on the $20 note.

When the new polymer notes were issued, the popular $50 bill featuring five women from Canadian history was replaced by a new polymer depicting a coast guard icebreaker. The old $50 bills were the only ones depicting women other than $20 bills Queen Elizabeth II.

On October 13, 2004, the Bank of Canada unveiled a new $50 banknote on the theme of nation building. For the first time in Canadian history, Canadian women were featured on the note. The bill featured images of the Alberta women known as the Famous 5, as well as the renowned activist Thérèse Casgrain.  The Famous 5 were petitioners in the groundbreaking Persons Case, a case brought before the Supreme Court of Canada in 1927 and later decided by the Judicial Council of Britain’s Privy Council (1929), Canada’s highest court at that time. Led by judge Emily Murphy, the group included Henrietta Muir Edwards, Nellie McClung, Louise Crummy McKinney and Irene Parlby. Together, the five women had many years of active work in various campaigns for women’s rights dating back to the 1880s and 90s.

The Persons Case was a constitutional ruling that established the right of women to be appointed to the Senate.   In 1928, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that women were not ‘persons’ according to the British North America Act and therefore were ineligible for appointment to the Senate. However, the Famous 5 appealed to the Privy Council of England, which in 1929 reversed the Court’s decision. The Persons Case opened the Senate to women. Moreover, the legal recognition of women as ‘persons’ meant that women could no longer be denied rights based on a narrow interpretation of the law.

At the time of their victory, the media dubbed the group the ‘Alberta Five’ as they hailed from the Province of Alberta.  Over time, as the case took on a privileged position in Canadian women’s history, the group became popularly known as the ‘Famous 5.’ They have come to represent an entire generation’s political activism, including an earlier, nationwide campaign for women’s voting rights.

Canadian women, aged 21 and over, obtained the right to vote in the  Federal elections in 1918, more than two years after the women of Manitoba became the first to vote at the provincial level in 1916.  Other Provinces then followed suit.  Saskatchewan on 14 March and Alberta on 19 April 1916 gave voting rights to women. British Columbia approved women’s suffrage on 5 April 1917 and Ontario a week later on 12 April 1917.

The provincial franchise for Nova Scotian women came on 26 April 1918.  New Brunswick  approved women’s suffrage on 17 April 1919. Prince Edward Island (PEI) amended its Election Act to include women on 3 May 1922, and Newfoundland women gained the vote on 13 April 1925. In Nova Scotia, PEI and Newfoundland, the right to stand for provincial office accompanied voting rights, but New Brunswick avoided that radical step until 9 March 1934. In Québec, under the courageous leadership of Thérèse Casgrain, the struggle continued until 25 April 1940, when women finally achieved the provincial counterpart to the federal vote they had been exercising for over 20 years.

Reactions to the Famous 5 have varied widely, but the significance of their contribution to the development of women’s rights in Canada was underscored in 2000 with the dedication of a bronze statue called “Women Are Persons!” by Edmonton artist Barbara Paterson in Ottawa and Calgary (1999). The Famous 5 Foundation was established in 1996.

As on the Women’s Day of 2016, as a testimony to women power in Canada, the country boasts of 26% of elected women members of the House of Commons – 88 women out of a 338 total members.  For the first time the greatest number (15 out of 30) of women have been appointed as Cabinet ministers, 50 per cent of Cabinet. On the very Women’s Day,  three provincial premiers are  women –  Kathleen Wynne of Ontario, Rachel Notley of Alberta and Christy Clark of British Columbia. 

In Canada’s nearly 150 year history, women, with the notable exception of the Queen, have largely been unrepresented on the banknotes.  2018 will usher in real change to a new generation of women who will carry with them constant reminders that they are not only Canada’s future, but a celebrated part of history.

Indian Parliament, on 10 March 2016, voted against the introduction of Shashi Thraoor’s  private member’s bill to decriminalise homosexuality.  The Parliament thwarted Thraoor’s  second attempt in three months to introduce the measure. Tharoor said it was ‘religious bigotry’ of the ruling party that had disallowed discussion on his private bill to amend the ‘colonial era’ section 377 of the IPC which criminalises homosexuality, marking ‘a low in the proud annals of Indian democracy.’

Now, Toronto City is all set to celebrate its annual ‘PRIDE Week’ in July 2016.  PRIDE is the acronym for People Recognising Individual Difference Equally.  Toronto’s Pride Week is an arts and culture festival that celebrates diverse sexual and gender identities, and the lives of Toronto’s Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transsexual, Transgender, Queer and Questioning (LGBTQ) communities. The theme of the 2016 Pride Parade, to be held on July 03, is ‘belonging and inclusion’. Along with the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Finance Minister Bill Morneau, Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne (who is openly gay) and Toronto Mayor John Tory are also expected to participate in the festivities.

Since the late 1960s, the LGBTQ community in Canada have seen steady gains in their rights/status. While discrimination against LGBTQ people persists in many places, major strides toward mainstream social acceptance and formal legal equality have nonetheless been made in recent decades.

Canada is internationally regarded as a leader in granting rights to the LGBTQ community. Today, the LGBTQ community have government health care, right to adopt, equality for employment (including military service), and enjoy all rights as applicable to opposite-sex married couples and common-law couples. In 2005, Canada became the fourth country in the world to legalise same-sex marriage.  Thousands of LGBTQ couples, who could not marry in the country where they live, have travelled to Canada seeking a legal marriage.

That was the Canadian side of the story. The Indian Law (Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code [IPC]) is a study in contrast. Unfortunately, it does not guarantee individual choice in matters of sexual preferences, sexuality, and sexual partners. This Section gives the state the authority to even investigate what is happening in your bedroom. It also makes any sex apart from penile-vaginal intercourse between a man and a woman, an illegal act. This severely impacts the LGBTQ community; why, it may also impact married heterosexual couples.

Section 377 of the IPC is a British relic, drafted in 1860 and based on outdated Victorian morals. It has no place in a modern nation like India. It is not even followed by the British today. The British laws now grant equal rights in all aspects to the LGBTQ community and have legalised same sex marriages from 2013.

Section 377 of the IPC is a law that was and can be used to oppress and harass the minority that have different sexual pereferences. The Indian Parliament is reluctant to amend the law. MP Shashi Tharoors’s Private Member’s Bill to decriminalise homosexuality and consensual sex between consenting adults was defeated in Parliament in December 2015. Tharoor’s bill was rejected at the introductory stage itself with 71 ‘Noes’ against 24 ‘yes’. There was one abstention. Tharoor, the lone fighter in this regard, appears to be in no mood of giving up and has promised that he will continue with his fight.

As per Tharoor, Section 377 of the IPC should be amended so that all consensual sex between consenting adults irrespective of gender and sexuality is made legal. It should ensure that forced sex, pedophilia or pederasty is not legalised and is dealt with in a severe manner.

There is an urgent need to amend Section 377 of the IPC as the Constitution of India guarantees Right to Privacy and Dignity under Article 21, Right to Equality under Article 14, and the Right against Discrimination under Article 15. Then why not the right to privacy, dignity and equality and also right against discrimination be guaranteed to LGBTQ people.

Now let us examine as to why there is so much of opposition from the Members of Parliament in making any changes to Section 377 of IPC.

Erotic desire or Kama in Hinduism was deemed as one of the most legitimate pleasures on earth. Premarital sex in Hinduism is frowned upon and extramarital sex is prohibited. Sex was promoted within the context of a loving couple – usually heterosexual. Marriage in Hinduism is said to fulfill three functions: Prajaa, Dharma, and Rati. In marriage, Prajaa is progeny for perpetuation of one’s family, Dharma is fulfillment of responsibilities, and Rati is companionship as friends and mutual pleasure as lovers. There are some references to the ‘Third Gender’ (Trtiya prakrti) in Hindu mythology. The term is loosely defined, referring in general to hetero-sexually dysfunctional men or women, who may be, according to the context, impotent, homosexual or transvestite or even having abnormal genitalia.

Attitude towards homosexuality in Western culture derives from the Biblical teaching on the subject. The Bible claims that homosexuality as a chosen sexual behaviour, is unnatural, sinful, amoral, and against God. Hence, most laws in Western countries, dealing with the LGBTQ community were codified based on it.

“Do not lie with a male as one lies with a woman; it is an abomination.” (Leviticus 18:22)
“Do you not know that the wicked will not inherit the kingdom of God? Do not be deceived: Neither the sexually immoral nor idolaters nor adulterers nor male prostitutes nor homosexual offenders.” (1 Corinthians 6:9)

The New York Times is the first major publication to use the word “homosexuality” in 1926. In 1933, when the Nazis came to power in Germany, they rounded up homosexuals and send them to the concentration camps along with Jews. Gay men had to wear a pink triangle on their camp clothes. Switzerland in 1942 became the first country to decriminalise homosexuality, with the age of consent set at 20. In 1954, Mathematical and computer genius Alan Turing, one of the World War II code-breakers, committed suicide by cyanide poisoning, 18 months after being given a choice between two years in prison or libido-reducing hormone treatment for a year as a punishment for homosexuality. Tennis player Billie Jean King in 1961, became the first prominent professional sports-person to come out as a lesbian.

Sexuality is a very complex issue with many theories but very little verifiable evidence. It has been demonstrated by research that everyone is found somewhere along a bell-curve. To one side there are the resolute heterosexuals and on the other side the resolute homosexuals. The vast majority of men and women are found somewhere along the bell curve in the grey area. When deprived of female company some men will engage in homosexual acts, while others will not. Research has proved that women are more likely to experiment with homosexuality than are men.

British-American Neuroscientist. Simon LeVay said “Yes, we have a choice in life, to be ourselves or to conform to someone else’s idea of normality, but being straight, bisexual or gay, or none of these, is a central part of who we are, thanks in part to the DNA we were born with.”

I wish MP Shashi Tharoor all the best in his drive to cleanse the inequalities in our laws.

On 03 March 2016, at about 4 PM, I received a telephone call from my friend Jose. He is generally at work at in the evenings and would never called me this time. My question to Jose was “Anything wrong?”  He said “I lost my Dad about an hour ago.” I asked him as to where he was and he said he was back home from his work place. I said that I would be there in the next ten minutes.

Jose hails from my village in Kerala and was my mother’s student in the village high school. The first time I met Jose was after landing in Canada. There was no occasion to meet him in India as I joined Sainik School at the age of nine, then moved on to the National Defence Academy and then 25 years service with the Indian Army. Jose knew my three brothers very well. Jose, being a lawyer, was a colleague of my elder brother at the Kottayam District Court. He until then was of the impression that my mother, his teacher, had three sons and not four.

During my annual visits to Kerala, Jose would always send some gift for his Dad and Mr Abraham would come home on my arrival to pick it up. He would also visit us on my return to hand over some gift for his grandson Kevin in Canada. Hence, it became a ritual for me to meet him during all my Kerala trips.

I reached Jose’s home and obviously he was heartbroken. I consoled him with a few words and in a minute I was off to coordinating his travel to Kerala. I immediately asked for the travel plans. Jose’s son Kevin, a Grade 10 student, was having his semester examinations and the feasibility of him accompanying his Dad was ruled out. Jose’s wife Pauline now had no option other than to stay back and take care of Kevin. Thus it was finalised that only Jose will travel to Kerala for the last rites of his father.

Jose was advised by me to call up his workplace and request for three weeks off. It was granted promptly by his supervisor. I now asked for Jose’s Canadian Passport and got on to the internet to fill up the Indian Visa application online. There is a need to upload a passport size photograph along with the application. I shot a photo of Jose on my Iphone, edited it and uploaded it.

Meanwhile, I requested Pauline to call up two travel agents to arrange the flight tickets. The options for travel zeroed down to travel by Air Canada – Air India via London and by Ethihad via Chicago. The option of a return trip from India through USA to Canada was rejected as one has to pick up the luggage at Chicago, go through the customs and immigration process, move to a different terminal with all the bag and baggage, recheck in with Air Canada, go through security and then board the flight. The rule in North America is that any passenger landing at any North American port has to get the customs and immigration check done there and then only proceed to their destination, even if it is in a different country. Considering all these factors, we finalised the travel by Air Canada – Air India, leaving Toronto at 6 PM on 04 March and bought the tickets.

When applying for an emergency Visa with the Indian Consulate, there is a need to prove the emergency. For that a booked air ticket for the journey to India and a letter from the hospital or local government authorities regarding the demise of a person is required. Now we called up Jose’s cousin in Kerala to obtain a letter from the hospital regarding the demise of Mr Abraham, indicating him as the father of Jose.

The online Visa application, the eticket from the airline, the letter showing the demise of Mr Abraham and a copy of a passport size photo were all printed and we were ready to proceed to the Indian Consulate at Toronto. Meanwhile, I rang up our neighbour and a close family friend Mr Thomas K Thomas for his help with the Visa application. Mr Thomas is our community leader and is well known to the Indian Consulate staff. He did the liaison with them and instructed us to meet Mr Sharma at the reception and he would do the needful. He also advised me to call him in case of any difficulties or delay.

Meanwhile there were many well wishers calling up Jose to express their condolences. They seem not to realise what was going on at the other end and kept the telephone line busy with their sympathetic conversation. Most wanted to know ‘How did he die? Which vehicle hit him? Have they filed an insurance claim? Are you going to Kerala? When are you going?, etc.’ Obviously, everyone wanted to know everything, but hardly anyone offered any assistance. Everyone wanted to be sympathetic rather than being empathetic and helpful at a time of need. In effect they were only tying down the telephone line, the most wanted resource at that time to arrange for Jose’s travel.

On 04 March morning we reached the Indian Consulate at Toronto by 10 AM. We obtained a Postal Order for $119 from the Canada Post Office located at the ground floor of the building. One got to have either a Bank Draft or a Postal Order as the Indian Consulate does not accept cash or debit/credit cards.   We met Mr Sharma at the reception and then handed over the Visa Application at the counter. After half an hour, Jose was called and his Passport with the Visa was handed over. The entire process was real fast and efficient.

We reached Jose’s home by midday. I now contacted our family friend Mr Johnson, who works as a supervisor with Air Canada. He advised me to drop off Jose at the airport by 3:30 PM as he would be off duty by 4 PM.   We drove off to the Toronto airport and were received by Johnson, who in no time completed all the ticketing formalities and checked in the luggage and I saw off Jose at the security gate.

While walking our dog Maximus, a black Labrador, every morning and evening on a 5 km route through the City of Mississauga, Canada, it was intriguing to see him stop at nearly all fire hydrants (non-existent in India) and expel a part of the contents in his bladder.  Maximus it seems has developed an art of dispensing a small quantity each time so that he can cover all the fire hydrants dotting the entire route.  I observed other dogs also doing the similar act and hence concluded it as a canine act.

Why do dogs get attracted to the fire hydrants?  As the fire hydrants are located is most likely closer to the sidewalk, all it takes is one dog peeing on it to get it to be a popular spot.  Once one dog marks it, the rest follow.   Dogs like something that extends above the ground level to mark their scent on.

Male dogs are attracted to pretty much anything they can lift their leg up and pee on. Urine is a dog’s visiting card. They will mark their territory on pretty much anything. A fire hydrant is no different than a telephone pole, light pole, or a sign pole. That is how they tell the other dogs who has been there and who is the boss.

Females aren’t much different except they are less dominant and obviously don’t lift their leg to pee, making it harder to aim.   Dogs urine-mark in a number of situations, including while on walks, when in their own homes and yards, and during visits to other locations. A dog must be at least three months of age to urine-mark.

What makes fire hydrants so special?  It cannot be the bright red colour as like all other animals, the canines see in different shades of grey and not in colour.  Height! The three feet high fire hydrant appears ideal for the canine act.  The higher a dog can lift his leg to urinate, the bigger the dog they must be, and the stronger probability they have in making their mark last. A small dog is no match when it comes to masking the smell of urination from a bigger dog.  The shape of the fire hydrants and they being placed at a near constant interval of about 50 meters may also be the cause of attraction.  The association between the dogs and the fire hydrants are more a media creation and also a marketing gimmick by dog toy and treat manufacturers, who make these in the shape of a fire hydrant.

A fire hydrant is an active fire protection measure, and a source of water provided in most urban, suburban and rural areas with municipal water service.  This enables firefighters to tap into the municipal water supply to assist in extinguishing a fire.

In areas subject to freezing temperatures like Canada, only a portion of the hydrant is above ground. The valve is located below the frost line (about 10 feet deep) and connected by a riser to the above-ground portion. A valve rod extends at the top of the hydrant, where it can be operated with the proper wrench. This design is known as a ‘dry barrel’ hydrant.  In this model, the barrel, or vertical body of the hydrant, is normally dry.   It is only in movies you see the fire hydrants spewing out water when hit by a car in a chase.  It is unlikely to happen as the control valve and the water is at least 10 feet below and it would be difficult for any known car of the day to break the cast iron column.

The invention of a post or pillar-type fire hydrant is generally credited to Frederick Graff Sr, Chief Engineer of the Philadelphia Water Works around the year 1801. It had a combination hose/faucet outlet and was of ‘wet barrel’ design with the valve on top. It is said that Graff held the first patent for a fire hydrant, but this cannot be verified because the patent office in Washington DC caught fire in 1836 destroying many patent records from that period.

In the earlier days, at least the 17^th century, when firefighters responding to a call would dig down to the wooden water mains and hastily bore a hole to secure water to fight fires. The water filled the hole creating a temporary well, and be transported from the well to the fire by bucket brigades, or later, by hand-pumped fire engines. The holes were then plugged with stoppers, normally redwood, which over time came to be known as fire plugs. The location of the plug was recorded or marked so that it could be reused in future fires. This is the source of the colloquial term ‘fire plug’ used for fire hydrants today. After the Great Fire of London in 1666, the city installed water mains with holes drilled at intervals, equipped with risers, allowing an access point to the wooden fire plugs from street level.

In most jurisdictions it is illegal to park a car within a certain distance of a fire hydrant. In North America the distance is commonly 3 meters or 10 ft. In the UK, yellow lines are used to keep cars from parking over underground hydrants. The rationale behind these laws is that hydrants need to be visible and accessible to the fire engines in an emergency.  The fine for breaking the rule can be anything from $25 upwards in Canada.

In India we have no fire hydrants and hence no such laws and so no fear of fines.

Wiarton Willie, the groundhog who lives in Wiarton, Ontario is the primary groundhog predictor of Ontario Province, who has been making his predictions since 1956. On 02 February 2016, the Groundhog Day, Billie predicted six more weeks of Winter, whereas Nova Scotia’s groundhog, Shubenacadie Sam called for an early spring.

On 03 February 2016, the Toronto area recorded the highest ever temperature of 15.5^oC. Normally, at this time of the year, there would be about six to 12 inches of snow with the mercury around the freezing mark. The warmest temperature ever recorded on the day was 9.3^oC in 1991.

Everyone presumed that Billy may be proved wrong this time, but not Weather-Canada. They also predicted that the winter season would continue for another six weeks.

The above image of our home was shot on 09 February 2016 morning, with about 10 cm of snow and the temperature at 0^oC. This indicates the weakening of the El Niño effect. The temperatures in the coming few days is expected to be well below minus 15^oC as per Weather-Canada.

The unusual warm temperatures in the first week of February had its effect on the tulip bulbs in our garden. The bulbs were reacting to the warm weather around them and sprouted. Now with the snowfall, they got buried under the snow cover. The foliage that sprouted will turn yellow and die back, returning the bulb to its ‘dormancy’ period. This way, the nature takes care of itself and in Spring (April), these same bulbs will sprout again and bloom.

“When spring came, even the false spring, there were no problems except where to be happiest. The only thing that could spoil a day was people and if you could keep from making engagements, each day had no limits. People were always the limiters of happiness except for the very few that were as good as spring itself.”  ― Ernest Hemingway, A Moveable Feast

What has groundhogs to do with Canadian weather predictions? It is believed that the groundhogs can predict the arrival of Spring on 02 February and is celebrated as the Groundhog Day in Canada and the US. According to legend, the groundhog emerges from its burrow at noon on that day to look for its shadow. If it is a sunny day and the groundhog sees its shadow, according to folklore it gets frightened and returns to its hole to sleep, and winter continues for six more weeks. If it does not see its shadow, it remains outside because the worst of winter is over and the spring is on its way.

The origins of Groundhog Day lie in medieval Europe, where the day was known as Candlemas Day, a Christian festival named for the custom of lighting candles on that day. In case the day was bright and sunny, the Europeans believed that the winter would stay for another six weeks, else they predicted an early arrival of spring. Europeans had hedgehogs also predicting the beginning of spring on Candlemas Day. When European settlers came to North America, they brought the February 2^nd legend with them. There being no hedgehogs in North America, they made the groundhogs do the prediction. For the early settlers, the onset of an early spring meant they could begin planting and and hence early harvest, especially with winter provisions dwindling. The major flaw with the groundhog prediction was that unlike in Europe, the long Canadian winters made the exit of the groundhogs from their burrows difficult on 02 February as the burrows were still buried in snow.

There is some truth to the shadow aspect of the legend. Sunny days in winter are generally associated with colder, drier arctic air and cloudy days with milder, moist maritime air. Given the tendency for weather conditions to persist for several days before changing, the weather on any 02 February may continue for a few days, but not necessarily any longer. Since seasons tend to follow a pattern, six more weeks of winter, rather than an early spring, is a statistically better option in Canada.

The North American tradition groundhogs predicting came from Europe with the German settlers. The first reported groundhog prediction is from Pennsylvania, USA in 1887.

Wiarton Willie, an albino groundhog who lives in Wiarton, Ontario is the primary groundhog predictor of Ontario Province, who has been making his predictions since 1956. The role of Willie has been played by several groundhogs over the years as their average life span is 4 to 6 years. Unlike the other groundhogs, Wiarton Willie does not live in a burrow in the wild; he lives in a special house, safe from predators. Other provinces have their own groundhogs to carry out the prediction on 02 February.

A study of weather data over several decades for 13 cities across Canada reveals that the groundhogs’ predictions were correct only 37% of the time and this also may be by mere chance. On 02 February 2016, two of Canada’s groundhogs have made clashing weather predictions. Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam is calling for an early spring while Ontario’s Wiarton Willie expects six more weeks of winter.

This year’s winters have not only left the groundhogs confused, but also has sent the meteorologists of Weather Canada on a leather-hunt; all courtesy the El Niño effect. This effect, in the first week of December 2015, swamped Chennai (India) with the heaviest rainfall in a century. The deluge resulted in about 250 people dead, several hundred critically injured, many houses and buildings destroyed or damaged, and thousands displaced.

This is the image of our home on 03 February 2016 and the temperature 15.5^oC. Normally, at this time of the year, there would be about six to 12 inches of snow with the mercury around the freezing mark.   The warmest temperature recorded on the day was 9.3^oC in 1991.

Where has the snow gone? Is it global warming? Is it the climate change in action? Is it the effect of El Niño phenomenon?

El Niño has a reputation of bringing mild winters across Southern Canada. It is associated with warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the Equator, to the West of South America. During the two strongest El Niño events of the past (1982-83 & 1997-98), the warmest water was right next to the coast of South America. This year the warmest water has shifted to the West of Canada and during the winter it will continue to shift further to the East.

A unique feature of this year’s El Niño is the warmer than normal ocean water temperatures that are widespread throughout the North Pacific (to the West of Canada). Another key to upcoming winter is that it appears that El Niño is peaking at the beginning of winter and a steady weakening during winter. During the winter of 1997-98, El Niño remained very strong through the winter. A weakening El Niño has a different impact on the weather pattern than does a strengthening El Niño. However, if El Niño surprises us and continues to strengthen, then the mild temperatures would persist throughout the winter.

While the strength of this year’s El Niño is comparable to 1997-98, the numerous differences in the global pattern are why a repeat of the mild winter across all of Southern Canada cannot be predicted. It is expected that there would be some snow in the next two months, prior to the Spring in April.

The unusual warm temperature has had its effect on the tulip bulbs in our garden. The bulbs are reacting to the warm weather around them and have sprouted as seen in the image above. With the next snowfall, expected in a few days, the foliage will yellow and die back, returning the bulbs to their ‘dormancy’ period. This way, the nature takes care of itself and in Spring these same bulbs will sprout again and bloom.

“When all is said and done, the weather and love are the two elements about which one can never be sure.” – Alice Hoffman, Here on Earth